Oscar Week! HollywoodChicago.com 2024 Predictions

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CHICAGO – Here we go again. Welcome to the annual Oscar Predictions on HollywoodChicago.com, for 2024 (the 96th Academy Awards). The film/entertainment contributors of HC – Patrick McDonald and Spike Walters – are joined by filmmaker treasure Michael Glover Smith (“Relative”) and film critic Jeffrey L. York of “The Establishing Shot.”

Michael Glover Smith is a locally-based Chicago filmmaker. “Relative” is his 2022 fourth feature film (after “Cool Apocalypse,” “Mercury in Retrograde” and “Rendezvous in Chicago”). His new short film is “Handle With Care,” which recently won the BEST IN SHOW at the George Lindsey UNA Film Festival. Jeffrey L. York is a film writer/critic and artist whose specialty is the film and celebrity caricature. Click JEFFREY YORK to see his art. This article is privileged to use a few of his illustrations below.

The PREDICTORS! The Oscars are on ABC-TV, March 10th, 2024
Photo credit: File Photo

TEN films of 2024 – “American Fiction,” “Anatomy of a Fall,” “Barbie,” “The Holdovers,” “Killers of the Flower Moon,” “Maestro,” “Oppenheimer,” “Past Lives,”“Poor Things,” and “The Zone of Interest” – will vie for the Best Picture Award. The HC.com predictors will opine on six categories … BEST Picture, Actor/Actress, Supporting Actor/Actress and Director. As in previous years, the predictions are broken down into thoughts on who WILL WIN, SHOULD WIN and SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED (for one last gasp of WTF?).

Separately, Patrick, Spike, Jeffrey and Michael will comment on a WILD CARD guess in four other categories, and the latest odds on the rest of the field – provided by by www.BetOnline.ag and and GoldDerby.com – will be highlighted to fill out your ballot for Oscar Night. Have a great Oscar weekend!

PREDICTOR GUIDE: Patrick McDonald = (PM), Spike Walters = (SW), Jeffrey L. York = (JLY) and Michael Glover Smith = (MGS).

BEST PICTURE
NOMINEES: “American Fiction” …“Anatomy of a Fall” … “Barbie” … “The Holdovers” …“Killers of the Flower Moon” …“Maestro” … “Oppenheimer” … “Past Lives” … “Poor Things” … “The Zone of Interest”


Will Win: “Oppenheimer” (MGS, JLY, PM, SW)

Should Win: “The Holdovers” (MGS), “Oppenheimer” (SW, JLY), “Barbie” (PM)

Should Have Been Nominated: “Trenque Lauquen” (MGS), “Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning” (SW), “May December” (PM, JLY)

Oppenheimer
Photo credit: Universal Pictures

Oppy is Toppy for Oscy …

MGS: As a non-“Intellectual Property” film that grossed almost a billion dollars, “Oppenheimer” is a shoo-in to win this, but Alexander Payne’s “The Holdovers” was funny, honest and secretly devastating, and an instant holiday classic … it was my personal favorite in this category.

JLY: A ginormous hit with critics and audiences, “Oppenheimer” is the sure-fire winner, especially since it’s the easier-to-vote-for half of the phenom that was “Barbenheimer.” As for “May December,” it deserved far more recognition than just Best Original Screenplay, but both it and “Saltburn” were likely deemed too “dirty” by the older Academy members. Their loss.

PM: Good to get this over with … the “Awards-a-Rati” have bestowed their groupthink knighting to Oppy and the gang, Vox Populi be damned (and better films). I’m a fan of Christopher Nolan and I do like his cinematic obsession with his subjects and themes, plus Oppy checks all the boxes for “Best Picture” integrity, but I disagree about the “wide berth” story path the film chose, not to mention some very narrow acting (Matt Damon’s character could be lifted, dialogue and all, and placed in “Dr. Strangelove.”). When asked on my radio show if one could leave after the Big Bang, I said “Head to the bar!” I preferred “Barbie” and its thought revolution, and “May December” had more going for it than four of the nominees … including Oppy. Ah, Oscar!

SW: In an overall strong year for movies, Christopher Nolan’s epic is a thinking man’s blockbuster. It reminds us of the power that movies can have, and it pulls if off spectacularly … “Oppenheimer” is without equal this year. But in terms of of pure blockbuster entertainment, I had hoped that Tom Cruise might have squeaked in with his latest “Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning.” It was pure crackerjack fun that got a little lost in the whole “Barbenheimer” phenomenon.

BEST ACTRESS
NOMINEES: Annette Bening, “Nyad” … Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon” … Sandra Hüller, “Anatomy of a Fall” … Carey Mulligan, “Maestro” … Emma Stone, “Poor Things”

Will Win: Lily Gladstone (JLY, PM, SW)

Should Win: Emma Stone (JLY, PM, SW), Gladstone (MGS)

Should Have Been Nominated: Greta Lee “Past Lives” (SW), Natalie Portman “May December” (MGS), Margot Robbie “Barbie” (JLY, PM)

Lily Gladstone
Photo credit: Universal Pictures

Stone Glad Lock for Gladstone …

SW: This might be the only other category with some real suspense. This was looking like Emma Stone had it locked up until Lily Gladstone pulled off her surprise SAG Awards win. I think the Academy doesn’t pass up the chance to make history by making Gladstone the first Native American to ever win an Oscar. However, Emma Stone had a much higher degree of difficulty pulling off her performance as a woman with the brain of a baby in the weird and off-putting “Poor Things.” While “Past Lives” got well deserved nominations, lead actress Greta Lee was not among them as the Academy overlooked her subtle brilliance.

MGS: Lily deserves it and Lily’s gonna get it. In an ideal world, Natalie Portman would have also been nominated for “May December.” The scene where Portman’s character does an imitation of Julianne Moore’s character while reading a letter in a direct-to-camera address caused me to have an out-of-body experience.

JLY: Gladstone is very good in what is actually a supporting role, but her standing is elevated by her actor’s journey. Stone could still win for the trickier, more dominating part, but it’s Lily’s time. But if she’d have been in supporting, then perhaps the Academy could’ve found room for Robbie on the list. How do you not nominate her when her film is the biggest of the year? 


PM: I don’t mind that Ms. Gladstone has the momentum and will take home the gold. She was a highlight of “Flower Moon,” and gave noticeable depth to her “dying to be dying” thanklessness. Emma Stone (in her best film performance) flat out had the widest acting range to corral, and it was delivered with deep surprise. Margot Robbie’s candy-colored identity confusion took some charming subtlety, overlooked in overall Barbie Fever. It just wasn’t Kenough.

BEST ACTOR
NOMINEES: Bradley Cooper, “Maestro” … Colman Domingo, “Rustin” … Paul Giamatti, “The Holdovers” … Jeffrey Wright, “American Fiction” … Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer”

Will Win: Cillian Murphy (PM, JLY, SW, MGS)

Should Win: Colman Domingo (PM), Murphy (JLY, SW), Giamatt (MGS)

Should Have Been Nominated: Nicolas Cage “Dream Scenario” (PM), Benoit Magimel “Pacification” (MGS), Andrew Scott “All of Us Strangers” (JLY)

Cillian Murphy of ‘Oppenheimer’
Photo credit: © Jeffrey L. York

Cillian’s a Dreamy Fave for All …

PM: You want proof of Oscar politics? Bradley Cooper was nominated … I would have preferred it going to his fake nose. Rant aside, Cillian has the edge over Giamatti and the momentum, leaving Colman Domingo’s noble passion in portraying Bayard Rustin (ironically) to the dustbin of cinema history. And Nic Cage’s self-imposed “bad movie period” may have him overlooked for the rest of his career, but he owned the role (in both comic and tragic terms) in the underrated “Dream Scenario.”

SW: This is one of the few categories with real drama this year as it’s essentially a two horse race between “Oppenheimer” Cillian Murphy and “The Holdovers” Paul Giamatti. I love Giamatti’s performance and it would be great to see him get his due for a role that encapsulates an excellent career, but I think the “Oppenheimer” steamroller will sweep Murphy in with it. I’ll be happy if I’m right, and I’ll be happy if I’m wrong. Both performances are equally deserving of the top nod.

MGS: Cillian Murphy is one of the many boats that will be lifted to victory by the rising tide of “Oppenheimer,” but this will be the biggest tragedy of the night. Paul Giamatti deserves to be acknowledged for his career-best work in “The Holdovers,” especially for that final scene, which broke my bloody heart.

JLY: The race is a toss-up between Murphy and Paul Giamatti with both deserving. Murphy had the trickier role though, as well as the bigger film, not to mention he won SAG, so he prevails. All five nominees in this category did excellent work though I wish that Andrew Scott could’ve made the list for his nuanced and heartbreaking performance.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
NOMINEES: Emily Blunt, “Oppenheimer” … Danielle Brooks, “The Color Purple” … America Ferrera, “Barbie” … Jodie Foster, “Nyad” … Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers”

Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (JLY, PM, SW, MGS)

Should Win: Randolph (JLY, MGS, SW), America Ferrera (PM)

Should Have Been Nominated: Penelope Cruz “Ferrari” (SW), Rachel McAdams “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret,” (PM), Julianne Moore “May December” (JLY, MGS)

Da’Vine Joy Randolph and Cast in ‘The Holdovers’
Photo credit: © Jeffrey L. York

Oh Joy, she’s Da’Vine …

JLY: Randolph is both hilarious and heartbreaking in the part, and plays more of a leading role in her film than those of her competitors except for Jodi Foster in “Nyad.” Plus, Randolph’s won every award, even BAFTA, so she might be the lockiest of locks all Oscar night. And for my money, Moore gave the best supporting performance this year – scary, funny, pitiable and tragic all rolled into one.

PM: I had issues with “The Holdovers,” and Randolph was fine, but I can’t help thinking that a different actor would have given the role a deeper meaning. America Ferrera delivered her fish-out-of-water and redemptive deliverance in equal measure, I preferred her performance. I didn’t see “Are You There God? … “ until the end of the year, and Rachel McAdams performance wasn’t just hype. Having to represent the more difficult adult side of the parallel track feminine symbolism – especially in the era the film was set in – was subtle and notable.

SW: Da’Vine Joy Randolph breaks through here as the prep school cook finding her way, after the loss of her son in Vietnam. Randolph has won just about everything leading up to this and should come away with Oscar gold here too. “Ferrari” ran out of gas with Oscar voters, but Penelope Cruz got a chance to sink her teeth into the role of Ferrari’s wife and business partner.

MGS: “Grief” has been overplayed as a subject for movies in recent years and yet Da’Vine Joy Randolph brought a new perspective on it in her delightful turn in “The Holdovers.” In a film featuring three great performances, she’s the secret heart of it.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
NOMINEES: Sterling K. Brown, “American Fiction” … Robert De Niro, “Killers of the Flower Moon” … Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer” … Ryan Gosling, “Barbie” … Mark Ruffalo, “Poor Things”

Will Win: Robert Downey Jr. (JLY, PM, SW, MGS)

Should Win: Sterling K. Brown (PM), Downey Jr. (JLY, SW), Robert De Niro (MGS)

Should Have Been Nominated: Charles Melton “May December” (PM, MGS), Dominic Sessa “The Holdovers” (SW, JLY)

Robert Downey Jr.
Photo credit: Universal Pictures

Iron Man takes home Gold Man …

MGS: Robert Downey Jr. has simply done too much for the industry to not win this time, but I'm among those who think De Niro's sinister-but-nuanced work in “Killers of the Flower Moon” represents his best work in decades.

JLY: Downey is extraordinary in his rare villain role, but Gosling made Ken the funniest part of “Barbie.” Still, not Kenough to best “Oppie” and Downey who will continue running the tables. Sessa may have been passed over for making it look too easy as this was his very first role on film. Actors can be incredibly generous…and equally as jealous.

PM: Strong round of contenders, with the “winner” having the least interesting performance in my point of view. Downey Jr. certainly is in line for the Julia Roberts Memorial Box Office Oscar and his time has come. Sterling K. Brown portrayed a man who in his selfishness was an a-hole, but through the character exposed the inherent flaws of family. The snub of newcomer Charles Melton was criminal, his arc in “May December” was the glue of the film.

SW: The “Oppenheimer” train keeps on rolling here with the performance that surprised me the most when I first saw the movie. Robert Downey Jr reminds us that after over a decade in the Marvel universe his acting talents are not diminished … he created a fully realized performance from the inside out. I would have liked to see “The Holdovers” Dominic Sessa get some recognition, but something tells me he’s got a bright future ahead.

BEST DIRECTOR
NOMINEES: Justine Triet, “Anatomy of a Fall” … Yorgos Lanthimos, “Poor Things” … Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer” … Martin Scorsese, “Killers of the Flower Moon” …Jonathan Glazer, “The Zone of Interest”

Will Win: Christopher Nolan (JLY, PM, MGS, SW)

Should Win: Nolan (JLY, SW), Martin Scorsese (MGS), Yorgos Lanthinmos (PM)

Should Have Been Nominated: Bradley Cooper “Maestro” (SW), Todd Haynes “May December” (MGS), Greta Gerwig “Barbie” (PM, JLY)

Christopher Nolan on Set for ‘Oppenheimer’
Photo credit: Universal Pictures

Nolan Contendere …

SW: The closest thing to a “sure thing,” Christopher Nolan finally gets his Oscar with his groundbreaking achievement that only he could have pulled off. Bradley Cooper continues to make great strides as a director, but can’t seem to get a break with the directing branch … he showed real growth with the biopic “Maestro.”

MGS: “Killers of the Flower Moon” may not have entirely worked for me, but there’s no denying it’s an incredibly complex and highly personal film for its director - an attempt at a reckoning with the sins of America’s past (including American film history). Marty directed the hell out of it and he did it on the largest possible scale.

JLY: Nolan turned what could have been a dry history lesson into a crackling, immediate thriller. He’s as great with actors as he is with all the technical attributes too so he’s got the whole Academy’s support. Plus, he’s way overdue and his film helped cinema roar back after the pandemic years. The director’s branch is always a bit on the prickly side and often controversial in whom they pass over. I think they snubbed Gerwig because her film was too big, too successful and done by a woman. Insecure men at it again..

PM: I admire Nolan as noted in Best Picture, but the storytelling waste in Oppy was also noted above … can a story be over told? But with FIVE previous gold guy nominations and no wins so far, his time has come. Yorgos Lanthimos of “Poor Things” (to me) was by far the most “best director” storyteller of the group. The Greta Gerwig snub is an obvious gaffe, as she combined candy coating, sharp satire, tribute and identity philosophy in a film about a doll. And that’s more than Kenough.

Go to PAGE TWO for the Predictor Crew’s WILD CARDS … categories near and dear for them to ponder, PLUS the odds for the rest of the categories. It’s Oscar weekend!