TV Feature: 2011 Fall Network TV Schedule Predictions

Printer-friendly versionE-mail page to friendPDF version

CBS (May 18th, 2011)

Blue Bloods Photo credit: CBS

Bubble Shows: “$#*! My Dad Says,” “Blue Bloods,” “Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior,” “CSI: NY,” & “Mad Love”

In overall viewers, the eye network is still #1, but it’s a several-year stranglehold that is definitely weakening. While the other networks have banked on reality hits like “Dancing With the Stars” and “American Idol,” CBS has successfully drawn older viewers with more traditional programming but, like all the networks, they struggled in the 2010-11 season. With eight new shows debuted over the course of the year, even the ones that seem likely to return aren’t exactly hits. And as “The Big Bang Theory” continues to slide on Thursday nights (they’re way down in the key demos) and drama swirls around “Two and a Half Men,” this is one of the few years that there could be a significant shake-up at the #1 network.

Of the new programs, “Chaos” has already been canceled and it seems likely that the under-performing “$#*! My Dad Says” and “Mad Love” will follow the Freddy Rodriguez program out the door. After strong opening numbers, “Criminal Minds: Suspect Behavior” has been sliding fast, losing an unacceptable portion of its hit lead-in. I think it’s a goner. And “The Defenders” is essentially canceled already.

That leaves “Mike & Molly,” “Hawaii Five-0,” and “Blue Bloods.” The first two perform well enough (especially when one adds DVR numbers for “Five-0”) that they are very likely to return, although I’m predicting a move for “Hawaii” to the more escapism-friendly Friday nights (and wouldn’t be surprised if “Mike & Molly” shifted to Thursdays).

The big question mark is “Blue Bloods.” The fact is that it doesn’t perform well overall, but it has a loyal following, which is something that all of the networks could use nowadays. I think that Selleck will just barely make the cut.

Finally, what of “CSI: NY,” which has been on the bubble all year? Part of me wants to say that if they’re killing one franchise expansion (“Suspect Behavior”), they won’t kill the other. It also kind of feels like it’s “NY” or “Blue Bloods.” I can’t really say why, but I have a feeling “NY” is done. It’s my “on a limb” prediction and could very well be wrong, but don’t forget that CBS has a track record of surprise cancellations of eroding veterans (“Without a Trace,” “Cold Case”).

Sunday: Amazing Race, Undercover Boss, CSI: Miami
Monday: How I Met Your Mother, Rules of Engagement, Two and a Half Men, Mike & Molly, NEW DRAMA
Tuesday: NCIS, NCIS: Los Angeles, The Good Wife
Wednesday: Survivor, Criminal Minds, NEW DRAMA
Thursday: BBT, NEW COMEDY, CSI, Mentalist
Friday: NEW DRAMA, Hawaii Five-0, Blue Bloods