CHICAGO – When is comes to Academy Award predictions, HollywoodChicago.com is second to none. That’s right, nobody does it better, even the approximately 100 million other outlets predicting the Big Night awards. HC film critics Patrick McDonald, Michael “Spike” Walters and Jon Lennon Espino “correctly” predict the major categories.
This year, there are nine films – “Arrival” “Fences” “Hacksaw Ridge” “Hell or High Water” “Hidden Figures” “La La Land” “Lion” “Manchester by the Sea” and “Moonlight” – that will vie for the Best Picture Award, and after last year’s #OscarSoWhite, a much more diverse nominee representation are in the acting categories. The HC team together will opine on BEST Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor/Actress, Director, Original Screenplay and Adapted Screenplay. As in previous years, the predictions are broken down into thoughts on who WILL WIN, SHOULD WIN and SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED (for one last gasp of anarchistic dissent). Separately, Patrick, Spike and Jon will comment on a WILD CARD guess for three other categories, and the latest odds on the rest of the field will be highlighted to fill out your ballot for Oscar Night. Happy Oscar Weekend!
PREDICTOR GUIDE: Patrick McDonald = (PM), Spike Walters = (SW) and Jon Espino = (JE)
BEST PICTURE
NOMINEES: “Arrival” “Fences” “Hacksaw Ridge” “Hell or High Water” “Hidden Figures” “La La Land” “Lion” “Manchester by the Sea” “Moonlight”
Will Win: “La La Land” (PM, SW, JE)
Will Win: “La La Land” (PM, SW, JE)
Should Win: “Moonlight” (PM, JE) “La La Land” (SW)
Should Have Been Nominated: “Jackie” (PM, JE)
It’s a clean sweep with all three predictors!…
SW: Sorry Haters, the Best Picture is going to what I thought was one of the best pictures of the year. It may spring from the familiar tradition of the old Hollywood musical, but there is nothing like this beautifully constructed crowd pleaser… with ditties you’ll be humming for days afterwards.
JE: The Academy has very predictable sensibilities, and ‘La La Land’ caters to all of them, which is why it will undoubtedly sweep the Oscars this year. ‘Moonlight’ is the underdog, but it is also the film that has a greater societal impact, and could use that extra boost to rise above the ‘La La’ noise. There was little-to-no love for ‘Jackie.’
PM: Pablo Larrain’s ‘Jackie’ was misunderstood by the voters…LALALALALA, Academy voters can’t hear me. Like the prez campaign, a divisive choice, but ‘La La’ has the mojo to go all the way. ‘Did you see them dance in the sky?’
BEST ACTOR
NOMINEES: Casey Affleck, “Manchester by the Sea”… Andrew Garfield, “Hacksaw Ridge”… Ryan Gosling, “La La Land”… Viggo Mortensen, “Captain Fantastic”… Denzel Washington, “Fences”
Will Win: Casey Affleck (PM, SW), Denzel Washington (JE)
Should Win: Affleck (PM), Washington (JE), Ryan Gosling (SW)
Should Have Been Nominated: Peter Simonischek “Toni Erdmann” (PM), Adam Driver “Paterson” (JE)
First split, and all make their case…
JE: Aside from sweeping the awards circuit, Denzel is the obvious choice and a well-deserved one. Say what you will about the overall tone and pacing of ‘Fences,’ but performances outshine the overly-theatrical feel of the film. A noticeably missing performance is Adam Driver’s severely understated one, in the thoughtfully developed ‘Paterson.’
PM: Despite a late backlash, Affleck’s deep performance, alway from the usual norms of such interpretations in loss and mourning, will rule the day. Peter Simonischek WAS Toni Erdmann.
SW: There’s not a bad performance in the bunch. I’m not as big a fan of Affleck’s emotionally shutdown janitor as others out there, but I think he’ll still rule the day. For my money, Gosling provided the most joy and razzmatazz among the Oscar nominees.
BEST ACTRESS
NOMINEES: Isabelle Huppert, “Elle”…. Ruth Negga, “Loving”… Natalie Portman, “Jackie”…
Emma Stone, “La La Land”… Meryl Streep, “Florence Foster Jenkins”
Will Win: Emma Stone (PM, SW, JE)
Should Win: Stone (SW), Natalie Portman (PM), Isabelle Huppert (JE)
Should Have Been Nominated: Rebecca Hall, “Christine” (PM, JE)
All together now, again, except in the SHOULD WIN category…
PM: Natalie Portman’s Jackie Kennedy was my favorite performance of the year, followed closely by Rebecca Hall in the criminally underrated “Christine.” As for Emma, did you see her dance in the sky!?
SW: Among the acting nominees Emma Stone is not quite a sure thing, but almost – it’s simply Stone at her most charming and talented, with a fleet foot and quite a voice to boot. Only French legend Isabelle Huppert has the outside chance of an upset, but it’s extremely unlikely.
JE: Emma Stone was the most captivating and emotionally resonant part of ‘La La Land’ and I wouldn’t be too upset if she won. That being said, Huppert’s performance is one of the most complex of this entire year. It is a roller coaster of emotions and confusing feelings, and a cringeworthy delight. Another wonderful performance that was woefully overlooked this year was the devastating performance by Rebecca Hall in ‘Christine.’
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR
NOMINEES: Mahershala Ali, “Moonlight”… Jeff Bridges, “Hell or High Water”… Lucas Hedges, “Manchester by the Sea”… Dev Patel, “Lion”… Michael Shannon, “Nocturnal Animals”
Will Win: Dev Patel (JE, PM), Jeff Bridges (SW)
Should Win: Mahershala Ali (JE, PM SW)
Should Have Been Nominated: Gael García Bernal - “Neruda“ (JE), Tracy Letts “Christine”/”Indignation” (PM)
Jon and Patrick get on Dev Patel Train, and Spike calls an upset…
JE: Dev Patel became the frontrunner in a category it seemed Mahershala Ali would dominate. Another overlooked performance and film is that of Gael García Bernal in ‘Neruda,’ which gives Bernal one of the best performances of his career.
PM: Where is the love for the great Chicago actor/playwright Tracy Letts? Dev wins in a squeaker (actually a lead role), and I’ve changed my vote from when the nominees were announced. Ali’s performance is the lifeblood of ‘Moonlight.’
SW: The supporting actor category tends to be the one where voters throw predictors a curve, with a bias toward honoring old Hollywood vets over young newcomers. Ali was a force and a presence that can not be underestimated, but Bridges’ Texas lawman might just take home an upset.
BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS
NOMINEES: Viola Davis, “Fences”… Naomie Harris, “Moonlight”… Nicole Kidman, “Lion”… Octavia Spencer, “Hidden Figures”… Michelle Williams, “Manchester by the Sea”
Will Win: Viola Davis (SW, PM, JE)
Should Win: Davis (SW, PM, JE)
Should Have Been Nominated: Gillian Jacobs “Don’t Think Twice” (PM), Lily Gladstone “Certain Women” (JE)
No need to call the ‘smith, because this is a lock from all three…
SW: Viola Davis has this coming to her. She’s been recognized and nominated multiple times before, and this is the closest to a sure thing. Davis makes the most of her screen time and her powerful supporting turn in ‘Fences’ is finally going to bring home gold.
PM: Viola Davis is the only reason to see ‘Fences,’ which I thought under Denzel’s direction was stagey and awkward…Davis transcended it all. I honor one of my top ten 2016 films ‘Don’t Think Twice’ through Ms. Jacob’s performance.
JE: I have been a Viola Davis fanboy since the beginning, and she has earned every bit of my praise in every film – her performances are always mesmerizing, One criminally ignored film in the Oscars is Kelly Reichardt’s film, ‘Certain Women,’ where Lily Gladstone delivers an incredibly nuanced performance.
BEST DIRECTOR
NOMINEES: Damien Chazelle, “La La Land”… Mel Gibson, “Hacksaw Ridge”… Barry Jenkins, “Moonlight”… Kenneth Lonergan, “Manchester by the Sea”… Denis Villeneuve, “Arrival”
Will Win: Damien Chazelle (JE, SW, PM)
Should Win: Chazelle (SW, PM), Barry Jenkins (JE)
Should Have Been Nominated: Pablo Larrain “Jackie” (PM), Martin Scorsese “Silence” (JE)
More love for LA LA…
JE: I can’t argue that ‘La La Land’ wasn’t a great film, and Chazelle’s direction brought the whole technicolor vision together, but Barry Jenkins’ film is much more complex in both the gorgeous technical aspect, as well as the complicated subject matter. For all the hard visual and theological work, Scorsese’s ‘Silence’ deserved at least a nomination.
SW: Although Barry Jenkins makes a strong case for ‘Moonlight’ and his film has its own kind of lyricism, Damien Chazelle will walk out of the ceremony with an Oscar in his hand and a song in his heart.
PM: Pablo Larrain’s ‘Jackie’ was auteur filmmaking at it’s finest…LALALALALA. Seriously, of the nominees, Chazelle masterfully guided a modern musical into public consciousness – it was a marvelous creative and technical achievement.
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY
NOMINEES: “20th Century Women” “Hell or High Water” “La La Land” “The Lobster” “Manchester by the Sea”
Will Win: “La La Land” (SW, PM), “The Lobster” (JE)
Should Win: “20th Century Women” (JE), “Hell or High Water” (PM, SW)
Should Have Been Nominated: Jim Jarmusch “Paterson” (PM, JE), Robert D. Siegel “The Founder” (SW)
Jonny goes upset, and finally some love for “Paterson”…
PM: The LALALALA express train keeps a-movin’, and only “Hell or High Water” is better of the nominated scripts. Jim Jarmusch’s understated “Paterson” was truly original.
JE: Any person who has seen “The Lobster” will tell you that it is easily the most original story they’ve ever seen (right after they ask themselves, ‘What the hell did I just watch?’). The completely overlooked ‘Paterson’ deserved to be nominated simply for how creatively Jim Jarmusch took one of the most famous American poets, and used his masterwork to recreate the inspiration behind it through the story of a bus driver.
SW: This is one the categories where we might see a ‘La La Land’ upset, since it’s more the design and the spirit of the movie that captivated audiences rather than it’s relatively simple plot – but I’m not going to bet on it.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY
NOMINEES: “Arrival” “Fences” “Hidden Figures” “Lion” “Moonlight”
Will Win: “Moonlight” (JE, SW, PM)
Should Win: “Moonlight” (JE, SW, PM)
Should Have Been Nominated: Tom Ford “Nocturnal Animals” (JE), James Schamus “Indignation” (PM), Robert Schenkkan & Andrew Knight “Hacksaw Ridge” (SW)
Mr. “Moonlight”…
SW: This is likely to be Moonlight’s consolation prize unless it pulls off a Best Picture upset. But it’s deserving of the honor and deserves to be recognized for its beauty and grace.
PM: ’Moonlight’ is rightfully honored as a nominee in this category, but veteran screenwriter/newbie director James Schamus deserves love for his deep and respectful adaptation of a complex Philip Roth novel.
JE: This one is open and shut – ‘Moonlight” wins, especially since it successfully wove difficult social problems into the timeline of a complex person. Just as complex was Tom Ford’s sleek revenge thriller ‘Nocturnal Animals,’ that created a world within a world.
WILD CARD
We took assignments on some other individual categories, just to comment upon some favorite gems buried in the mass of Oscar beyond the above-the-line interest.
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE (Spike Walters)
NOMINEES: “Kubo and the Two Strings” “Moana” “My Life as a Zucchini” “The Red Turtle” “Zootopia”
Will Win: “Zootopia”
Should Win: “Moana”
I think Walt Disney Studios wins this category either way with two strong entries. Voters may be leaning towards “Zootopia” for its strong social message and themes, although “Moana” is more of the visual and lyrical treat for the eyes and ears. (SE)
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY (Jon Espino)
NOMINEES: “Arrival” “La La Land” “Lion” “Moonlight” “Silence”
Will Win: “La La Land”
Should Win: “La La Land”
Should Have Been Nominated: “The Neon Demon”
Just as a surprise, this is one category that I don’t think “Moonlight” deserves to win. While “Moonlight’s” visual style is mesmerizing and abundant with symbolism, “La La Land’s” visual aesthetic is infections and will enchant you. Now, if “The Neon Demon” were being nominated instead, it would easily get my vote since the entire film is an enthralling moving editorial picture that is powerful enough to draw the viewer deeper into the film regardless of story or plot. (JE)
BEST ANIMATED SHORT (Patrick McDonald)
NOMINEES: “Blind Vaysha” “Borrowed Time” “Pear Cider and Cigarettes” “Pearl” “Piper”
Will Win: “Blind Vashya” Theodore Ushev
Should Win: “Blind Vashya”
Should Had Been Nominated: “Moms on Fire” Joanna Rytel
I sat on the Animated Short Film jury at the 52nd Chicago International Film Festival last year, so I feel an infinity for this category, and although our eventual pick “Moms on Fire” (from Germany) didn’t get nominated, our Gold Plaque honoree “Blind Vashya” did. This Canadian entry is so exquisite and beautiful in its woodcut animation style, but what really informs it is the simple message it conveys. The odds-on favorite is “Piper,” from the Walt Disney/Pixar Studios, but I think the voters of the Academy will be swayed by “Blind Vashya.” Honorable mentions: the simplicity of “Pearl” (Patrick Osborne) is an American Dream, and the Canadian “Pear Cider and Cigarettes” (Robert Valley & Cara Speller) is an epic story and style. (PM)
ODDS FOR THE REST
To complete the rest of the categories, here are the latest odds for each…
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Toni Erdmann (Germany) 4/5
The Salesman (Iran) 11/10
A Man Called Ove (Sweden) 7/1
Land of Mine (Denmark) 66/1
Tanna (Australia) 66/1
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Ennemis Interieurs 10/11
La Femme et le TGV 8/1
Silent Nights 22/1
Sing 8/1
Timecode 4/1
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
City Of Stars (La La Land) 2/15
How Far I’ll Go (Moana) 6/1
Audition/The Fools Who Dream (La La Land) 8/1
Can’t Stop The Feeling (Trolls) 25/1
The Empty Chair (Jim: The James Foley Story) 40/1
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
O.J.: Made in America 1/9
13th 9/2
I Am Not Your Negro 16/1
Fire at Sea 25/1
Life, Animated 50/1
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Joe’s Violin 3/2
The White Helmets 23/10
Extremis 4/1
Wantani: My Homeland 20/1
4.1 Miles 22/1
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
La La Land 1/15
Moonlight 9/1
Lion 12/1
Jackie 15/1
Passengers 50/1
BEST FILM EDITING
La La Land 2/13
Moonlight 66/1
Hell or High Water 100/1
Hacksaw Ridge 16/1
Arrival 20/1
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
The Jungle Book 1/5
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 4/1
Doctor Strange 9/1
Deepwater Horizon 33/1
Kubo and the Two Strings 33/1
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
La La Land 4/7
Jackie 6/5
Florence Foster Jenkins 18/1
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 25/1
Allied 50/1
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
La La Land 1/5
Arrival 11/1
Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them 18/1
Hail Caesar 66/1
Passengers 100/1
BEST MAKE-UP AND HAIR STYLING
Star Trek Beyond 8/13
Suicide Squad 23/10
A Man Called Ove 11/1
BEST SOUND EDITING
La La Land 6/1
Hacksaw Ridge 2/5
Arrival 8/1
Deepwater Horizon 66/1
Sully 100/1
BEST SOUND MIXING
La La Land 3/10
Hacksaw Ridge 11/2
Arrival 18/1
Rogue One: A Star Wars Story 66/1
13 Hours 100/1
 [25] | By PATRICK McDONALD [26] |
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[20] http://www.hollywoodchicago.com/news/patrick-mcdonald
[21] http://www.hollywoodchicago.com/news/predictions
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[23] https://www.bovada.lv/
[24] http://www.goldderby.com/odds/expert-odds/oscars-2017/
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