CHICAGO – Okay kids, time to jump into the 2016 Oscar Pool. There are “predictors,” and then there is HollywoodChicago.com! That’s right, critic contributors Spike Walters and Patrick McDonald have the inside scoop to who will win on Oscar night, because they have a DeLorean time machine – in their dreams!
Eight films – “Bridge of Spies,” “Mad Max: Fury Road,” “The Revenant,” “Spotlight,” “The Martian,” “The Big Short,” “Room,” and “Brooklyn.” – will vie for the 2016 Best Picture Award, and multiple white faces will compete for the acting categories. Spike and Patrick will opine on BEST Picture, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor/Actress and Director. As in previous years, the prognostications are broken down into thoughts on who WILL WIN, SHOULD WIN and SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED (for one last gasp of desperate dissent). The predictors will also take on a wild card guess for two other categories, and the latest odds on the rest of the field will be highlighted to fill out your ballot for Oscar Night. Happy Oscar!
PREDICTOR GUIDE: Spike Walters = SW and Patrick McDonald = PM
BEST PICTURE
Will Win: “The Revenant” (SW, PM)
Should Win: “Mad Max: Fury Road” (SW), “Room” (PM)
Should Have Been Nominated: “Steve Jobs” (SW), “Love & Mercy” (PM)
Both prognosticators go with the Big Bear, not in the “Room”…”Personally, I’m not a big fan of ‘The Revenant,’ but it’s sweeping to victory because obviously there are folks in the Academy who love bears, and their ability to maul Leo.” (PM) “All that grunting in ‘The Revenant’ seems to have put the Academy in a trance, and it seems to the one with momentum right now even though it’s my least favorite nominee. ‘Mad Max: Fury Road’ was a true technical and cinematic marvel. And while for me the most dynamic and exciting movie of the year, ‘Steve Jobs,’ wasn’t nominated.” (SW)
BEST ACTOR:
Will Win: Leonardo DiCaprio “The Revenant” (PM, SW)
Should Win: DiCaprio, (PM), Michael Fassbender (SW)
Should Have Been Nominated: Tom Courtenay “45 Years” (PM), Michael B. Jordan “Creed” (SW).
It’s Leonardo’s year, we’re just sharing it with him…”Leo simply overshadows a fairly straight forward group of performances. Courtenay should have joined his on-screen ’45 Years’ partner Charlotte Rampling, but it would have made no difference in the year of Leo.” (PM) “Leonardo Dicaprio will win this year but for all the wrong reasons. He’s due, and ‘The Revenant’ was an understandably difficult shoot. But I’d rather watch Michael Fassbender embody and bring to life the prickly pioneer a hundred times rather than sit through ‘The Revenant’ again.” (SW)
BEST ACTRESS:
Will Win: Brie Larson “Room” (PM, SW)
Should Win: Cate Blanchett, “Carol” (PM), Larson (SW)
Should Have Been Nominated: Charlize Theron “Mad Max: Fury Road” (PM, SW)
Brie Larson gets the nod here, and Charlize Theron gets some love, emerging from the adrenaline-fueled Max universe…“Except for JLaw, this is the strongest group of performances, with any of the other three deserving of gold. What distinguishes Blanchett, Rampling and Ronan from Larson (who was terrific) was that they completely had to carry their films, but Cate especially was the whole of ‘Carol.’” (PM) “Brie Larson gets and should win the award because she makes palatable what didn’t sound like an appealing premise. It takes a lot for an actress to basically hold the screen while trying to get by stuck in a single room and survive, but Larson pulls it off. Charlize Theron was truly a surprise in the big budget blockbuster and proved more than able to carry the film, turning Mad Max into a supporting player in his own movie.” (SW)
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR:
Will Win: Sylvester Stallone “Creed” (PM), Mark Ruffalo, “Spotlight”
Should Win: Stallone (PM), Ruffalo (SW)
Should Have Been Nominated: Pierce Brosnan “No Escape” (PM), Michael Stuhlbarg “Steve Jobs” (SW)
The predictors are split, the predictors are split!…”Cue endless playings of the ‘Rocky’ theme, Stallone is honored full circle. Catch Pierce Brosnan if you can in the underrated ‘No Escape,’ as he portrays a somewhat demented James Bond.” (PM) “While prognosticators have Sly Stallone taking home Oscar gold for playing Rocky (for the 7th time) I smell an upset here – perhaps it’s the lingering resentment from having to sit through too many bad Stallone pictures over the years. Ruffalo has the most Oscar ready reel in an entire cast full of stellar supporting players in Spotlight, and he deserves it. Stuhlbarg never had a chance, but I thought his subtle and delicate work while holding the screen with one of the titans of technology was worthy of an honor.” (SW)
BEST SUPPPORTING ACTRESS:
Will Win: Jennifer Jason Leigh “The Hateful Eight” (PM), Alicia Vikander, “The Danish Girl” (SW)
Should Win: Leigh (PM), Kate Winslet “Steve Jobs” (SW)
Should Have Been Nominated: Alicia Vikander “Ex Machina” (PM), Jennifer Jason Leigh “Anomalisa” (SW)
Ha Ha Ha, the wildest split possible. Jennifer and Alicia switch roles and positions between two guesses in two categories…”This is one of my famous (and mostly wrong) ‘split the vote’ predictions. Kate has faded since the Globes, and Vikander is nominated for the wrong film, thus the showy JenJay takes the gold. Yep.” (PM) “Vikander was nominated this year but for the wrong role. She gets a nomination and probably the award for a forgettable piece of Oscar bait. Winslet disappeared into her role and had a way with dialogue that turned it from technical jargon into pure poetry. Jennifer Jason Leigh is another actress nominated this year but for the wrong role, when she was truly striking in the animated ‘Anomalisa.’” (SW)
BEST DIRECTOR:
Will Win: Alejandro González Iñárrittu “The Revenant” (PM, SW)
Should Win: Adam McKay “The Big Short” (PM), George Miller “Mad Max: Fury Road”
Should Have Been Nominated: Alex Garland “Ex Machina” (PM), Danny Boyle “Steve Jobs” (SW)
It’s a clean sweep for “The Revenant” in this category, and SW continues his “Steve Jobs” love…”Visually and technically, ‘The Revenant’ is an achievement. Story, not so much, but give Iñárrittu credit for swaying the Awards Season two years in a row. Todd Haynes for ‘Carol’ just missed the should-have-been. ” (PM) “I am hoping against hope for an upset here, but Iñárrittu’s showy self-satisfied-yet-ultimately-arduous-and-meaningless meander through the west will probably make him a back-to-back winner.” (SW)
WILD CARD
We took assignments on some other individual categories, just to comment upon some favorite gems buried in the mass of Oscar beyond the above-the-line interest.
BEST ANIMATED SHORT (Patrick McDonald)
Will Win: “World of Tomorrow” Don Hertzfeldt
Should Win: “World of Tomorrow”
Should Had Been Nominated: “Chasm” Joel Benjamin
I mention this category because I was privileged to see all the nominees, and “World of Tomorrow” is one of the best films of the entire year. It meditates on the meaning of life, through a toddler’s meeting with her future self – it’s funny and futuristic, with true poignancy being the outcome. It’s worth the four buck rental on Vimeo, click here. [23] “Chasm” is from director/animator Joel Benjamin – and I’ve seen a couple of his works at the Chicago International Film Festival. He is a future pick for this category.
BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY (Spike Walters)
Will Win: “The Big Short” Adam McKay and Charles Randolph
Should Win: “The Big Short”
Should have been nominated: “Steve Jobs” Aaron Sorkin
It’s criminal that Aaron Sorkin wasn’t nominated for his best work since The Social Network. Something about the emerging ways of technology seems to bring out the best in him. The team behind the Big Short deserves special kudos though because they took a complicated subject and made it into a movie without sacrificing what made the book so fascinating in the first place.
ODDS FOR THE REST
To complete the rest of the categories, here are the latest odds for each…
BEST SCREENPLAY
Spotlight 1/14
Inside Out 13/2
Bridge Of Spies 16/1
Ex Machina 25/1
Straight Outta Compton 25/1
BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM
Son Of Saul 1/20
Mustang 7/1
Embrace Of The Serpent 25/1
A War 25/1
Theeb 33/1
BEST ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Inside Out 1/100
Anomalisa 20/1
Shaun the Sheep Movie 33/1
Boy & the World 66/1
When Marnie Was There 66/1
BEST LIVE ACTION SHORT
Ave Maria 8/11
Shok 2/1
Stutterer 3/1
Day One 12/1
Everything Will Be Okay 16/1
BEST ORIGINAL SONG
Til It Happens To You - The Hunting Ground 4/11
Writings On The Wall - Spectre 7/2
Earned It - 50 Shades Of Grey 6/1
Simple Song 3 - Youth 7/1
Manta Ray - Racing Extinction 20/1
BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE
Amy 1/5
Cartel Land 7/2
The Look of Silence 16/1
What Happened Miss Simone? 50/1
Winter on Fire: Ukraine’s Fight for Freedom 66/1
BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT
Body Team 12 11/10
Claude Lanzmann: Spectres of the Shoah 11/10
A Girl in the River: The Price of Forgiveness 7/1
Last Day of Freedom 20/1
Chau Beyond the Lines 20/1
BEST ORIGINAL SCORE
The Hateful Eight 1/8
Star Wars: The Force Awakens 4/1
Bridge Of Spies 20/1
Carol 25/1
Sicario 33/1
BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY
The Revenant 1/25
Mad Max: Fury Road 17/2
Sicario 33/1
Carol 33/1
The Hateful Eight 50/1
BEST FILM EDITING
Mad Max: Fury Road 1/4
The Big Short 9/4
Spotlight 14/1
The Revenant 14/1
Star Wars: The Force Awakens 50/1
BEST VISUAL EFFECTS
Star Wars: The Force Awakens 1/2
Mad Max: Fury Road 6/4
The Revenant 10/1
The Martian 33/1
Ex Machina 40/1
BEST COSTUME DESIGN
Mad Max: Fury Road 4/6
Cinderella 2/1
Carol 5/1
The Danish Girl 14/1
The Revenant 14/1
BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN
Mad Max: Fury Road 1/10
The Revenant 10/1
The Danish Girl 12/1
The Martian 14/1
Bridge Of Spies 16/1
BEST MAKE-UP AND HAIR STYLING
Mad Max: Fury Road 1/5
The Revenant 3/1
The 100-Year-Old Man Who Climbed Out The Window And Disappeared 25/1
BEST SOUND EDITING
Mad Max: Fury Road 4/7
The Revenant 11/8
Star Wars: The Force Awakens 11/1
The Martian 25/1
Sicario 80/1
BEST SOUND MIXING
Mad Max: Fury Road 8/11
The Revenant 6/5
Star Wars: The Force Awakens 16/1
The Martian 40/1
Bridge Of Spies 80/1
CLICK HERE [24] for the 10 Best Films of 2015 by Patrick McDonald of HollywoodChicago.com.
CLICK HERE [25] for the 10 of 2015’s Worst Films by Patrick McDonald and Spike Walters of HollywoodChicago.com.
CLICK HERE [26] for the 20 Best interviews of 2015 by Patrick McDonald of HollywoodChicago.com.
[28] | By PATRICK McDONALD [29] |
Links:
[1] http://www.hollywoodchicago.com/users/hankq
[2] http://www.hollywoodchicago.com/news/88th
[3] http://www.hollywoodchicago.com/news/academy-awards
[4] http://www.hollywoodchicago.com/news/best-actor
[5] http://www.hollywoodchicago.com/news/best-actress
[6] http://www.hollywoodchicago.com/news/best-director
[7] http://www.hollywoodchicago.com/news/best-picture
[8] http://www.hollywoodchicago.com/news/best-supporting-actor
[9] http://www.hollywoodchicago.com/news/best-supporting-actress
[10] http://www.hollywoodchicago.com/news/bridge-of-spies
[11] http://www.hollywoodchicago.com/news/brooklyn
[12] http://www.hollywoodchicago.com/news/entertainment-news
[13] http://www.hollywoodchicago.com/news/film-feature
[14] http://www.hollywoodchicago.com/news/hollywoodchicagodotcom-content
[15] http://www.hollywoodchicago.com/news/mad-max-fury-road
[16] http://www.hollywoodchicago.com/news/oscar
[17] http://www.hollywoodchicago.com/news/patrick-mcdonald
[18] http://www.hollywoodchicago.com/news/room
[19] http://www.hollywoodchicago.com/news/spotlight
[20] http://www.hollywoodchicago.com/news/the-big-short
[21] http://www.hollywoodchicago.com/news/the-martian
[22] http://www.hollywoodchicago.com/news/the-revenant
[23] https://vimeo.com/ondemand/worldoftomorrow
[24] http://www.hollywoodchicago.com/news/26119/film-feature-the-10-best-films-of-2015-by-patrick-mcdonald
[25] http://www.hollywoodchicago.com/news/26142/film-feature-10-of-the-worst-films-of-2015-by-spike-and-patrick
[26] http://www.hollywoodchicago.com/news/26286/oscar-week-feature-top-20-interviews-of-2015-by-patrick-mcdonald
[27] http://www.oddschecker.com/awards/oscars
[28] mailto:pat@hollywoodchicago.com
[29] http://www.hollywoodchicago.com/about#PAT