TV Feature: Predictions For the 65th Annual Emmy Award Winners

CHICAGO – The 65th Annual Emmy Awards, hosted by Neil Patrick Harris, will unfold on Sunday night and I’m back for that annual game of guess the winners. More than any other show, the Emmys seemed designed to make those of us who try to figure them out feel stupid. Sure, there are a few very safe bets but there are some categories that just make you want to throw your hands up (or throw a dart at a board). Here are my best guesses along with what should win and what should have been nominated. Don’t bet the farm on any of it.

Breaking Bad
Photo credit: AMC

OUTSTANDING DRAMATIC SERIES
I feel pretty confident about this one since AMC and the team behind “Breaking Bad” were brilliant to air the current, incredible, highly-buzzed season during the voting window for last year. Picture the Academy voter with a ballot in his hand, hearing all about the last episode of “Breaking Bad” — it would be difficult to NOT have that influence the vote here. It helps that the recent winners — “Homeland” & “Mad Men” — were both down this year. Could “Game of Thrones” or “House of Cards” pull an upset? Anything is possible but I think this is the first year that Vince Gilligan’s creation gets the trophy it has long-deserved. (And next year is the last.)

Will/Should Win: Breaking Bad
Should Have Been Nominated: Hannibal

OUTSTANDING DRAMATIC ACTOR
Perhaps it’s just a win-by-association instinct but what I said above about current “BB” influencing voters is going to extend to here as well. And, once again, it helps that the stiffest competition — Damian Lewis & Jon Hamm — are nominated for seasons that even they would agree weren’t their best. Cranston, on the other hand?

Will/Should Win: Bryan Cranston, Breaking Bad
Should Have Been Nominated: Hugh Dancy, Hannibal

DRAMATIC ACTRESS
No matter what anyone may say about some of the clunky writing on the last season of “Homeland,” none of the show’s flaws could possibly be traced back to the great Claire Danes, who won last year, will win this year, and is likely to win every year this show is on the air. Let’s be honest. It’s been tough to find consistency in this category given the still-weak state of writing for women on TV. Danes should dominate for some time, even if she wouldn’t get my vote, barely edged out by the fascinating Vera Farmiga, a woman who entered a franchise with a ton of history and a ton of expectations and made it feel like she belonged there all along.

Will Win: Claire Danes, Homeland
Should Win: Vera Farmiga, Bates Motel
Should Have Been Nominated: Keri Russell, The Americans

Homeland
Photo credit: Showtime

DRAMATIC SUPPORTING ACTOR
Now here’s where things get interesting. Whereas anyone but Cranston or Danes would truly surprise me, NOTHING would surprise me here. Could Aaron Paul and Jonathan Banks split their own votes for “Breaking Bad”? I think that’s possible enough that Patinkin slips in for “Homeland,” although having nowhere else to recognize the great “Game of Thrones” might make Dinklage a likely winner here too. Sadly, the guy I would vote for isn’t really in the running given the perception that the third season of “Boardwalk Empire” was its weakest.

Will Win: Mandy Patinkin, Homeland
Should Win: Bobby Cannavale, Boardwalk Empire
Should Have Been Nominated: Corey Stoll, House of Cards

DRAMATIC SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Again, a category with a half-dozen winners that wouldn’t surprise me. And so I’m going with what so often happens in the dramatic categories — a sweep. Both Danes & Lewis won last year. This year they’ll go with Cranston and his long-deserving partner, Anna Gunn.

Will Win: Anna Gunn, Breaking Bad
Should Win: Christina Hendricks, Mad Men
Should Have Been Nominated: Abigail Spencer, Rectify

OUTSTANDING COMEDY SERIES
Oh, how I wish they’d mix things up here. Here’s the sad truth: As much as they like to shuffle it up in the acting categories, the series ones regularly feature repeat winners. “Mad Men” won for years. “Homeland” could get two this year. And, even though everyone agrees that “Modern Family” didn’t have its best season, there isn’t a strong enough challenger to dethrone it. “Girls” suffered a little sophomore slump and not enough people watch “Veep” or “Louie.” “The Big Bang Theory” may be its closest competition. “Modern Family” wins almost by default.

Will Win: Modern Family
Should Win: Louie
Should Have Been Nominated: Enlightened

Modern Family
Photo credit: ABC

OUTSTANDING COMEDY ACTOR
Again, no one can claim a strong enough season or following to topple the current King, Jim Parsons. Many are predicting that Louis C.K. finally has the backing to do so and that would be the most pleasant surprise of the night, but I’m not predicting it. This way I’m either right or happy.

Will Win: Jim Parsons, The Big Bang Theory
Should Win: Louis C.K., Louie
Should Have Been Nominated: Jake Johnson, New Girl

OUTSTANDING COMEDY ACTRESS
An incredibly talented slate of nominees here would lead to some real hand-wringing on my part if I had a vote. Julia Louis-Dreyfus won last year for “Veep” and she was even better in season two, so she seems likely to repeat. But, man, I’d be happy if any of them won, especially Laura Dern, who did arguably the best work of her career on the second and tragically final season of “Enlightened.”

Will Win: Julia Louis-Dreyfus, Veep
Should Win: Laura Dern, Enlightened
Should Have Been Nominated: Nobody. Miraculously, they went 6 for 6 here.

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR
Or the “Modern Family” award. The buzz is that the episodes submitted by Ty Burrell were the strongest of the “Family” bunch and so he’s got the lead over his co-stars. I’ll go with the buzz.

Will Win: Ty Burrell, Modern Family
Should Win: Adam Driver, Girls
Should Have Been Nominated: Chris Pratt, Parks and Recreation

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS
I have to go out on a limb somewhere, right? OK, the fact that “Modern Family” was down this year creatively will be felt here, leading to an upset win by a woman that everyone agrees contributed greatly to the continued success of one of the most popular shows on TV. Blossom rules.

Will Win: Mayim Bialik, The Big Bang Theory
Should Win: Sofia Vergara, Modern Family
Should Have Been Nominated: Jessica Walter, Arrested Development

The movie/mini-series awards should be spread around to HBO’s “Behind the Candelabra,” FX’s “American Horror Story: Asylum,” and possibly Sundance’s “Top of the Lake” and/or USA’s “Political Animals.” For the final two, they’ve become so predictable that one wonders if they should even be aired any more. I’d rather see the Guest awards, given out the other night, than watch “The Amazing Race” and “The Daily Show” winners try to come up with something new to say. Maybe this is the year the streak ends. I doubt it.

MOVIE/MINI-SERIES
Will Win: Behind the Candelabra
Should Win: Top of the Lake
Should Have Been Nominated: Parade’s End

MOVIE/MINI-SERIES ACTOR
Will Win: Michael Douglas, Behind the Candelabra
Should Win: Matt Damon, Behind the Candelabra
Should Have Been Nominated: Ben Whishaw, The Hour

MOVIE/MINI-SERIES ACTRESS
Will Win: Jessica Lange, American Horror Story: Asylum
Should Win: Elisabeth Moss, Top of the Lake
Should Have Been Nominated: Sienna Miller, The Girl

American Horror Story: Asylum
Photo credit: FX

MOVIE/MINI-SERIES SUPPORTING ACTOR
Will Win: James Cromwell, American Horror Story: Asylum
Should Win: Peter Mullan, Top of the Lake
Should Have Been Nominated: Ciaran Hinds, Political Animals

MOVIE/MINI-SERIES SUPPORTING ACTRESS
Will/Should Win: Ellen Burstyn, Political Animals
Should Have Been Nominated: Adelaide Clemens, Parade’s End

REALITY COMPETITION SERIES
Will Win: The Amazing Race
Should Win: Top Chef
Should Have Been Nominated: Survivor

VARIETY SERIES
Will/Should Win: The Daily Show with Jon Stewart
Should Have Been Nominated: Key & Peele

[16]	By BRIAN TALLERICO [17] Content Director HollywoodChicago.com brian@hollywoodchicago.com [16]